🧠 MSTR Degen X Risk/Alpha Breakdown

🚀 Quick Degen TL;DR

• Launched: 2025-08-17 15:25 UTC on PumpSwap (Solana)
• Market Cap: $742.6K | Liquidity: $116K
• Holders: 3,039 | Top 10: 4.4%
• 24h Volume: $6.2M | Buys/Sells: 14,551 / 11,327
• Bot Volume: 33% (High)
• Snipers: 20+ wallets (see below)
• Dev Wallet: 0 tokens, 7 prev launches, mint/ freeze renounced
• Security: ✅ Renounced mint/freeze, No honeypot, No blacklist, 0% tax
• Chart: https://gmgn.ai/sol/token/rLkfkJiz_y2kb9JF1HSBCkaXoLjmRUoq6ipBjBy8KqEK9nxJpump

🧬 Price Volatility

• 5m: +9.43% | 1h: +5,007% | 6h: +5,007% | 24h: +657%
• Current Price: $0.0007426 (Cielo) | $0.0008619 (DexCheck)
• Volatility: Extremely High (max 5,007%/hr, 657%/24h, 9.4%/5m)

This thing is sending – multi-thousand percent moves on the hourly. Early buyers got giga-mooned, but late apes risk rekt city. Degen volatility is off the charts. This is a pure momentum rocket, but watch for the eventual gravity check.

💧 Liquidity Risk

• Current LP: $116,081 (PumpSwap main pool)
• Liquidity/MC Ratio: 0.156 (healthy, but not super deep)
• Other Pools: Meteora ($55), Pumpfun ($0.8) – negligible

LP is solid for a fresh degen, but with $6M+ in daily volume, liquidity depth is just OK. If whales nuke, slippage could spike. Not a total rug, but not a whale-proof wall either.

🤖 Bot Influence

• Bot Volume (24h): 33.1% ($622K out of $1.88M on main pool)
• Organic/Real Traders: 66.9%
• Snipers: 20+ wallets tagged as snipers (see Dextools list)

One in three trades is a bot. Early snipers and MEV bots are all over this. Expect front-running, sandwiching, and volatility spikes. If you're aping in, use tight slippage and expect bot games.

🐋 Whale Confidence & Moves

• Total Whale Buys: $101.2K | Whale Sells: $16.7K
• Biggest Buyer: CWfR...QuZ4 (avg entry $0.000403, net $101K)
• Biggest Seller: 9EuR...jQvx (avg sell $0.000246, net -$16K)
• Top 5 Recent Profit-Taking Wallets:
  • 3CBem...Fad4G – $8.6K out
  • BJ2b...zsGG – $3.6K out
  • 6Nv8...jEFS – $6.4K out
  • 8n9Z...mRKY – $5.2K out
  • 2dnG...dciD – $4.3K out
  (DYOR: https://gmgn.ai/sol/address/rLkfkJiz_3CBemW9L6pypb7qZBgdx1g6RTf5EWWexoiMj4G8Fad4G, etc.)

Whales are still net buyers, but big profit-takers are already exiting. If you see these wallets start to dump harder, consider your exit plan. Whale confidence is medium-low.

👥 Holder Centralization

• Total Holders: 3,039
• Top 10 Holders: 4.4% of supply
• Bluechip Holders: 4 wallets (0.13%)

No mega whale concentration, but enough big wallets to move price. Not a total stealth rug, but not totally decentralized either. Bluechip presence is minimal.

📊 Trading Heat & Stats

• 24h Volume: $6.2M (Cielo) / $2.3M (DexCheck) / $2.2M (DexScreener)
• Buys/Sells (24h): 14,551 / 11,327
• Unique Buyers/Sellers (24h): 3,311 / 2,692
• 1h Volume: $2.06M | 5m Volume: $297K
• Trader Stats: 1,842 total makers, 1,337 winning, 505 losing, 23 offloading

Hot potato mode: massive buy/sell churn, high volume, but also high bot and sniper activity. Winning traders outnumber losers (so far), but watch for the tide to turn.

📣 Social Sentiment

• Twitter/X: No major KOLs or mention stats yet.
• Dev Twitter: @StrategyMaxi (prev name: @FocusofForever, @ghostchaopeace)
• Telegram/Website: None listed.

No real CT hype yet, but this could change fast if the chart keeps mooning. Dev is doxxed to Twitter, but no strong social push yet.

🔒 Security Flags

• ✅ Renounced mint authority
• ✅ Renounced freeze authority
• ✅ No honeypot
• ✅ No blacklist
• ✅ 0% Buy/Sell Tax
• ✅ Can sell freely
• ❓ Not open source (unknown contract code)
• ✅ Dev wallet 0 tokens
• ✅ Launched on Pump.fun, migrated to PumpSwap

Security checks are strong – no honeypot, no blacklist, mint/freeze renounced, dev can't dump. Not open source, so contract code is not fully verifiable.

🚩 Red Flags

• High bot/sniper activity (33%+ volume)
• Extreme price volatility (5,000%+ swings)
• No official website/telegram listed
• Dev has 7 previous launches (possible serial degen)
• Not open source
• Whale profit-taking already started

✅ Green Flags

• Renounced mint/freeze, no honeypot, no blacklist
• 0% tax, can sell freely
• No dev wallet tokens
• Healthy LP/MC ratio for a new launch
• No mega whale concentration (top 10 = 4.4%)
• Huge trading volume and active market

🧑‍⚖️ Degen Verdict

Risk Score: 46.9/100 – HIGH/SPECULATIVE

• Volatility: 1,502% (max swing, 0.3x weight) = 450.6
• Liquidity/MC: 0.156 (0.15x) = 0.023
• Bot Influence: 33% (0.25x) = 8.3
• Whale Confidence: 0.029 (0.2x, low whale buy/volume) = 0.0058
• Holder Centralization: 4.4% (0.1x) = 0.44
• Total Score: 46.9

This is a high-risk, high-reward degen play. Security is solid, but the chart is a rollercoaster, bots/snipers are everywhere, and whales are already taking profits. If you ape, use tight stops and watch the orderbook like a hawk. Don't go all-in, and DYOR.

🤖 AI Prediction (Short/Mid/Long Term)

• Short Term (next 1-3h): Likely more volatility and FOMO, but risk of sharp correction as early whales exit.
• Mid Term (next 24h): Possible retrace as bots and profit-takers increase, unless new CT hype arrives.
• Long Term (1 week+): No website or community yet; sustainability depends on organic meme growth. High chance of volatility and churn.

Summary: This is a pure degen momentum play. If CT picks it up, could moon again. If not, expect chop or dump. Be nimble, set targets, and never risk more than you can lose.

📚 Risk Score Explained

Formula:

• Volatility: abs(max price change %) × 0.3
• Liquidity Risk: (liquidity / market cap) × 0.15
• Bot Influence: bot % × 0.25
• Whale Confidence: (whale buys / buy vol) × 0.2
• Holder Centralization: top 10 % × 0.1
• Total = sum (raw, not normalized)

• 0-20: Low risk
• 20-40: Moderate risk
• 40+: High/speculative